Populist Rhetoric and Institutional Trust in Post-Transition Democracies

Abstrakt

Post-transition democracies in Central and Eastern Europe have witnessed the sustained rise of populist political movements whose rhetoric frequently targets established democratic institutions as illegitimate or captured by narrow interests. This study examines the relationship between exposure to populist rhetoric and institutional trust among citizens in several post-transition democracies, distinguishing effects on trust in electoral institutions from trust in judicial and media institutions. Using survey experiments in which respondents were exposed to varying intensities of populist rhetorical framing, we test whether rhetoric emphasizing elite betrayal produces uniform erosion of institutional trust or differentiated effects depending on institution type and respondent prior partisan alignment. Findings indicate that populist rhetoric produced the strongest trust erosion for judicial institutions specifically, exceeding effects observed for electoral or media institutions, and that this erosion was most pronounced among respondents already expressing weak partisan attachment prior to exposure. Respondents with strong existing partisan identities showed more resistant trust levels regardless of rhetorical exposure, suggesting a moderating role for prior political attachment. These findings contribute to understanding differentiated institutional vulnerability to populist rhetorical strategies in democracies still consolidating institutional legitimacy following political transition.